As Ghana’s December 2024 elections draw closer, a final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics places John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), ahead of his closest competitor, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
The poll reveals a commanding lead for Mahama, with 51.1% of committed voters backing him, while Bawumia follows with 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) are also part of the contest, securing 4.1% and 6.2% of the vote, respectively. Other candidates in the race hold a combined 1.3%.
Using the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama still retains his advantage, with 49.3% compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%. These figures reflect the growing challenges facing the NPP, as voter apathy emerges as a significant concern. According to the poll, 16% of potential non-voters are NPP supporters, whereas the NDC faces only 3% in this category. Floating voters and those who declined to disclose their affiliations represent a notable portion of non-voters, at 38% and 39%, respectively.
One of Mahama’s key strengths in this election is his substantial lead among floating voters, outpacing Bawumia by a wide 31-point margin (54% to 23%). This advantage is further solidified by an 18-point lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations. Mahama’s growing support is also evident among first-time voters, where he leads Bawumia 46% to 38%, a notable improvement from the July 2024 poll, which showed the two candidates tied in this demographic.
Bawumia, on the other hand, is facing a decline in support from key voter groups. Notably, his support among Muslim voters, traditionally a strong base for him, has dropped by nearly 4% between July and October 2024. This decrease in backing is a significant challenge for the Vice President as he looks to solidify his position in the race.
Another concerning trend for Bawumia is the shifting loyalty of voters who previously supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in the 2020 elections. While 70% of these voters remain committed to Bawumia, 19% have switched to Mahama, and 5% have moved their support to either Kyeremanten or Bediako. In regions such as Greater Accra and Central, where the NPP had previously dominated, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have now shifted their allegiance to Mahama.
Regionally, Mahama is consolidating his support, leading in 12 regions, having recently added the Bono region to his tally since the July poll. His influence extends across key regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta. In contrast, Bawumia leads in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
In particular, the Ashanti region, traditionally a stronghold for the NPP, is seeing significant competition from independent candidates. Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten are making inroads, eroding Bawumia’s dominance in the area. The NPP had aimed to secure 85% of the Ashanti region’s vote, but Bawumia currently stands at 66%, with Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%.
Mahama is also outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia is trailing his candidates in 79 constituencies. This underperformance reflects the impact that independent candidates like Kyeremanten and Bediako are having on the ruling party’s fortunes.
The central issues driving voters in this election are the economy, jobs, and education. The economy remains the top concern, with 70% of respondents identifying it as their primary issue. Jobs follow closely at 62%, with education at 48%. The country’s current economic conditions are a key factor influencing voter decisions, with 55% citing it as a primary concern, followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
When it comes to manifesto favorability, the NDC holds a 14-point lead over the NPP. The ruling party’s manifesto has a net favorability rating of +6 points, but this advantage does little to sway the majority of voters who are disillusioned with the current administration. A significant 62% of voters believe that Ghana is heading in the wrong direction, with this sentiment being particularly strong among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters still believe the country is on the right track.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job performance approval remains low, with only 36% of voters approving, while 59% disapprove. The government’s overall performance is also rated poorly, with 49% of voters describing it as poor or very poor, compared to 30% who rate it as good or very good.
As the December elections approach, Mahama’s commanding lead in key regions and among crucial voter demographics positions him as the front-runner. Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges, not only from voter dissatisfaction with the economy but also from the rising influence of independent candidates like Kyeremanten and Bediako.
