A new report released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could sharply widen global inequalities, particularly between advanced economies and developing nations. The comprehensive study, published on Tuesday, cautions that unless urgent measures are taken, the world may witness what it calls a “great divergence” in economic prosperity, technological capacity, and governance systems.
For decades, global development trends showed signs of convergence, with many lower-income nations gradually closing gaps in education, health, infrastructure, and economic growth. However, the UNDP now warns that the emergence and accelerating adoption of AI may disrupt this progress, creating new divides that could be more entrenched and far-reaching than those of the past.
Speaking during a press briefing in Geneva, Philip Schellekens, Chief Economist for UNDP’s Asia Pacific Regional Bureau, stressed the urgency of the situation. According to him, the world is entering a defining moment in which decisions taken now will shape global opportunities and vulnerabilities for decades. “We think that AI is heralding a new era of rising inequality between countries, following years of convergence in the last 50 years,” Schellekens said. His comments underscore the gravity of the challenge facing policymakers, researchers, and global development institutions.
The report, titled The Next Great Divergence: Why AI May Widen Inequality Between Countries, presents a detailed analysis of how AI could influence economic productivity, job markets, national competitiveness, public services, and political stability. It notes that, historically, technology and trade have played major roles in reducing global gaps in income, health, and educational outcomes. Many developing countries were able to leverage access to global markets, information exchange, and innovations to foster social and economic improvements. Yet AI, due to its speed, complexity, and dependence on highly specialised skills, could reverse these gains if not managed carefully.
A key concern is the uneven distribution of AI expertise, infrastructure, and financial capacity. Wealthier countries, especially those with strong digital economies, advanced research institutions, and access to large volumes of data, are set to benefit disproportionately. They are rapidly integrating AI into healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, business operations, education, and public administration. These advancements could enable them to unlock significant new economic value while improving efficiency and global competitiveness.
On the other hand, developing nations face multiple constraints. Many lack the digital infrastructure required to deploy AI at scale. Inadequate internet accessibility, limited technological investment, gaps in digital literacy, and weak regulatory frameworks pose serious barriers. Without deliberate interventions, these factors could make it extremely difficult for poorer countries to participate meaningfully in the global AI revolution. Instead of narrowing development gaps, AI risks deepening them.
The UNDP report emphasises that this potential divergence is not only an economic issue. The broader consequences could affect human security, migration patterns, and political stability. Schellekens warned that rising inequality could trigger socio-economic pressures that many states may not be equipped to manage. “If inequality continues to rise, the spillover effects in terms of security, and undocumented forms of migration, will also become more daunting,” he said. This highlights the possibility that countries unable to keep up with technological transformation may face increased instability, pushing more people to seek opportunities elsewhere.
In addition, the governance challenges surrounding AI are profound. Advanced nations are already investing heavily in developing regulatory frameworks, ethical guidelines, and oversight mechanisms to manage risks associated with AI systems. These include algorithmic bias, misinformation, job displacement, and safety concerns. However, countries with weaker institutions may struggle to build and enforce such governance structures. The absence of strong regulatory frameworks could expose them to misuse of AI technologies, exploitation, and increased vulnerability to cyber threats.
Another major theme of the report is the importance of skills development. AI-driven economies require a highly skilled labour force capable of working with complex digital systems, data science, machine learning, robotics, and advanced automation tools. While many developed countries are reforming their education systems and training programmes to adapt to these needs, less resourced nations face significant challenges in modernising their curricula, providing digital training, and equipping young people with necessary competencies. Without targeted support, the skills gap could widen dramatically.
Despite the risks, the UNDP stresses that AI also offers tremendous opportunities for developing countries—if harnessed properly. AI can improve healthcare delivery through early disease detection, enhance agricultural productivity, support climate adaptation, strengthen education, and streamline public service delivery. For these benefits to materialise, governments must commit to long-term digital investments and international cooperation.
The report makes several recommendations aimed at preventing the widening of AI-driven inequality. It urges governments to adopt forward-looking policies that promote digital infrastructure development, strengthen education and training systems, and build robust regulatory frameworks. It also calls for global collaboration to ensure that developing nations can access AI technologies, participate in research, and receive the financial and technical support needed to integrate AI effectively.
Furthermore, the UNDP encourages international organisations to play a more active role in bridging technological divides. This includes facilitating partnerships between governments, the private sector, academia, and civil society to promote inclusive AI adoption. By ensuring that all countries are equipped to harness AI’s potential, the world can move toward a future where technological progress is shared rather than concentrated.
The report ultimately sends a clear message: while AI represents one of the most transformative innovations of the century, its benefits will not be evenly distributed unless deliberate action is taken. Without coordinated efforts, the world risks entering an era where technological power is concentrated in the hands of a few nations, leaving millions further behind.
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