In the days following the funeral of Pope Francis, Vatican City has become a hive of activity, as Catholic cardinals from around the world gather for informal discussions ahead of the formal conclave set to begin on May 7. At the gates of the city-state, journalists swarmed the arriving prelates, eager to glean any signs of consensus on who might emerge as the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
“There is the hope of unity,” said Cardinal Ángel Sixto Rossi, the 66-year-old archbishop of Córdoba, Argentina. Rossi, who was elevated to cardinal status by Pope Francis in 2023, voiced a sentiment shared by many within the College of Cardinals as they navigate the complex task of selecting a successor.
Unity remains a pressing priority for the Church after more than a decade under Pope Francis, whose papacy emphasized outreach to marginalized communities, advocacy for the poor, opposition to war, and a broader vision of social justice. His pastoral approach resonated deeply with many faithful worldwide but also stirred significant resistance among more conservative factions of the Church.
Now, as the cardinals convene behind the high walls of the Vatican, discussions are reportedly divided between two main currents: those who wish to continue Francis’ vision and those advocating for a return to traditional doctrinal emphases championed by Saint John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI.
A Global Assembly with Diverse Perspectives
One notable characteristic of the current College of Cardinals is its unprecedented diversity. Over his 12-year pontificate, Pope Francis made a concerted effort to appoint cardinals from previously underrepresented regions, including Africa, Asia, and Latin America. His appointments aimed to better reflect the global nature of Catholicism today.
As a result, many cardinals who will vote in the upcoming conclave have had limited exposure to each other, adding an element of unpredictability to a process that typically relies heavily on personal relationships and coalition-building.
“There are brothers here I am meeting for the first time,” commented one African cardinal, speaking anonymously to local media. “It is a blessing, but it also makes our task harder.”
Currently, 135 cardinals are eligible to vote, meaning they are under the canonical age limit of 80. However, it remains uncertain how many will actually participate, as health issues or personal considerations could prevent some from attending.
Continuity or Course Correction?
The coming conclave presents a pivotal choice for the future of the Catholic Church. Many cardinals, particularly those from Latin America and Africa, have expressed a desire to build upon Francis’ legacy, emphasizing outreach, inclusivity, and a church that champions the downtrodden.
However, conservative voices within the College stress the need to reassert the Church’s doctrinal clarity on issues such as sexuality, marriage, and the priesthood.
“We need a leader who will not dilute the truths of our faith but uphold them courageously,” said a European cardinal close to traditionalist circles. “The Church must not lose itself in the spirit of the age.”
These differing priorities mean that consensus will not come easily. According to Vatican experts, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority — roughly 90 votes — to be elected pope. Achieving that threshold requires delicate negotiation, alliances, and a shared sense of direction.
Behind Closed Doors: How the Process Works
The conclave itself, a centuries-old tradition, is designed to insulate cardinals from external influence. Once inside the Sistine Chapel, they will be sequestered from the outside world until a new pope is chosen.
Balloting can take days, with votes held twice each morning and twice each afternoon until a clear winner emerges. After each round, ballots are burned — black smoke indicates no decision has been made; white smoke signals a new pope has been elected.
In the days leading up to the conclave, the informal meetings, known as “general congregations,” allow cardinals to express their thoughts openly and listen to others. These conversations are crucial for identifying leading candidates, gauging the mood of the electors, and shaping the issues that will dominate the papal election.
An Uncertain but Hopeful Future
Despite the divisions, many cardinals and observers emphasize the importance of maintaining unity within the Church during this transitional moment. The challenges facing the next pope are immense: declining religious participation in the West, growing Catholic populations in the Global South, rising political tensions globally, and internal debates over doctrine and governance.
“This is not merely a political election,” said Vatican analyst Giovanna Merola. “It is a spiritual discernment. The cardinals are seeking not just a capable administrator, but a shepherd for a global flock of over a billion souls.”
Among potential frontrunners, speculation abounds, but no clear favorite has yet emerged. Some suggest that a cardinal from Asia or Africa could be elected, reflecting the shifting demographics of global Catholicism. Others argue that a European pope, well-versed in Vatican administration, is needed to guide the institution through its current complexities.
What remains clear is that the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church will face the daunting task of balancing tradition and renewal, authority and mercy, identity and outreach — a task made even more complex by the diverse and dynamic College of Cardinals left as Pope Francis’ enduring legacy.
As preparations for the conclave intensify, Catholics around the world are called to prayer, hoping that the Holy Spirit will guide the cardinals toward a wise and unifying choice.
“We trust that God will send us the shepherd we need for these times,” said Cardinal Rossi, his words echoing the hope and uncertainty that characterize this historic moment for the Church.
