Guinea’s military junta has announced that a constitutional referendum will be held on September 21, 2025, in a move aimed at restoring civilian rule. The long-awaited vote follows several missed deadlines and broken promises by the military, which had previously pledged to organize the referendum but failed to do so.
Background and Political Context
General Mamadi Doumbouya, head of the ruling junta, had assured Guineans in his New Year’s address that 2025 would be a “crucial electoral year to complete the return to constitutional order.” However, at the time, he did not provide a specific timeline for the transition process. The latest announcement marks a significant step toward fulfilling that commitment, though skepticism remains among opposition leaders and international observers.
The referendum’s scheduling follows the junta’s failure to meet a December 31, 2024, deadline to launch the democratic transition. This delay sparked widespread outrage among opposition figures and civil society groups, leading to mass protests that paralyzed the capital, Conakry. Demonstrators accused the military leadership of deliberately stalling the process to prolong its grip on power. The protests turned violent in some areas, with security forces clashing with demonstrators, leading to injuries and arrests.
Key Issues on the Ballot
The proposed constitutional changes to be decided in the referendum include the introduction of presidential term limits, a critical reform that could shape the country’s future governance. Additionally, voters will determine whether current junta members should be allowed to contest in future elections. This issue has been particularly contentious, as it could determine whether the military retains significant political influence after the transition.
If approved, these changes could signal a departure from the “transition charter” initially drafted by the junta following the September 2021 coup. The original charter explicitly barred members of the military government from participating in elections, a provision aimed at preventing power consolidation by the junta. However, speculation remains that the upcoming referendum may be an attempt to amend this restriction, potentially allowing military leaders to extend their rule under a democratic guise.
The military junta has argued that lifting the ban on junta members contesting elections would ensure a more inclusive transition, but opposition parties strongly disagree. They believe that allowing military officials to run could undermine the entire transition process and lead to further political instability.
Opposition Concerns and Human Rights Issues
Guinea’s military leaders have long faced accusations of suppressing dissent, with opposition members and journalists frequently arrested on charges widely seen as politically motivated. Human rights organizations have criticized the junta for using legal and security measures to silence critics, warning that the upcoming referendum could be manipulated to serve the interests of the ruling authorities rather than ensuring a fair and democratic transition.
Reports of harassment and intimidation of political activists have increased in recent months, raising concerns about whether a truly free and fair referendum can take place. Civil society organizations have called for international observers to be deployed to monitor the vote and prevent any potential electoral fraud. Some opposition leaders have even suggested boycotting the referendum if adequate safeguards are not put in place to ensure transparency.
Regional and International Reactions
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has repeatedly urged Guinea’s military government to adhere to its commitments and facilitate a swift return to civilian rule. Following the junta’s failure to meet the December 2024 deadline, ECOWAS warned of possible sanctions if further delays occurred. With the new referendum date set, international observers will be closely monitoring the process to assess whether it is conducted in a free, fair, and transparent manner.
The African Union (AU) and the United Nations have also expressed concerns about the prolonged transition period. They have emphasized the need for a legitimate democratic framework that includes input from all political stakeholders, rather than a constitution drafted primarily by the junta.
The United States and European Union have issued statements calling for an open and transparent process, urging the junta to respect the will of the Guinean people. Foreign diplomats in Conakry have been engaging with both military and opposition leaders to ensure that the referendum is conducted under fair conditions.
Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios
If the referendum results in the establishment of presidential term limits and upholds the ban on junta members contesting elections, it could pave the way for a genuine democratic transition. However, if the changes permit the military’s continued political involvement, the country could see prolonged instability and resistance from opposition groups.
Analysts suggest that the junta may use the referendum as a strategic move to secure its future political role while creating the appearance of democratic progress. Given the history of political instability in Guinea, the outcome of the vote will be crucial in determining the nation’s democratic trajectory.
The business community has also expressed concern over the continued uncertainty surrounding Guinea’s political future. Investors are hesitant to commit to long-term projects while the country’s leadership remains in flux. The success of the referendum and a clear timeline for elections could help restore confidence in the economy and encourage foreign investment.
Moving Forward
As the referendum date approaches, political tensions are expected to rise. Opposition groups and civil society organizations are likely to intensify their calls for greater transparency and inclusivity in the process. The junta, on the other hand, will seek to reassure the public and international partners that the vote represents a genuine step toward democratic governance.
The weeks leading up to the referendum will be crucial in shaping public perception of the vote’s legitimacy. Political debates, media coverage, and civic engagement efforts will play a significant role in informing voters about the proposed constitutional changes and their potential impact on the country’s future.
For Guinea, the upcoming months will be critical in shaping the nation’s future. Whether the referendum truly restores constitutional order or serves as a means for the military to maintain its influence remains to be seen. What is certain is that Guineans, along with the international community, will be watching closely to see if this marks the beginning of a democratic transition or merely another chapter in the country’s turbulent political history.
Conclusion
The uncertainty surrounding Guinea’s transition underscores the broader challenges of restoring democracy after a military takeover. While the junta has set a date for the referendum, the credibility of the process remains in question. With opposition parties, civil society groups, and international observers keeping a close watch, the success of the referendum will largely depend on its transparency and fairness.
If the vote is conducted properly and leads to meaningful democratic reforms, it could be a turning point for Guinea. However, if it is seen as a tool for the junta to maintain power, the country could face further political turmoil. As the referendum date approaches, all eyes will be on Guinea to see whether this is a genuine step toward democracy or another setback in the nation’s long struggle for political stability.
