The interim government of Ethiopia’s Tigray region has called on the Ethiopian federal government to intervene after a faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized control of two major towns. The sudden takeover has left several people wounded and raised fears of renewed conflict in the region.
Seizure of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem
On Tuesday, the TPLF faction took control of Adigrat, the second-largest town in Tigray, and replaced the administrator loyal to the interim government with a new appointee. Less than 24 hours later, on Wednesday night, the faction expanded its control by capturing Adi-Gudem, a strategically located town near the regional capital, Mekele.
The takeover of Adi-Gudem was met with resistance, leading to violent clashes. Several individuals suffered gunshot wounds when armed forces attempted to occupy a government building. This escalation has intensified concerns about the stability of Tigray, which has been struggling to recover from years of war.
Background of the Tigray Conflict
The TPLF fought a devastating two-year war against the Ethiopian federal government, which began in November 2020 and ended in November 2022 with the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. The conflict left hundreds of thousands dead, displaced millions, and pushed many to the brink of famine in Africa’s second-most populous nation.
As part of the peace agreement, a TPLF-led interim government was established in Tigray to restore governance and stability. However, internal power struggles within the TPLF have since fractured the leadership, leading to new tensions and uncertainty.
Political Rift Within the TPLF
In October 2023, the internal divisions within the TPLF became more pronounced when the party’s leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, expelled the head of the interim government, Getachew Reda, along with four of his cabinet members. This move deepened the political crisis in Tigray, setting the stage for the recent power struggle.
In response to his ousting from the party, Reda—who was the chief negotiator of the peace agreement—temporarily suspended four senior military commanders whom he suspected of siding with Gebremichael’s faction. The rift between the two factions has since widened, contributing to the current instability.
Fears of Renewed Conflict
The Tigray Communication Affairs Bureau, which operates under the interim government, issued a statement on Wednesday warning that the region may be “on the brink of another crisis.” The ongoing power struggle has fueled speculation that Tigray could slide back into conflict, undoing the progress made since the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed.
Reda has labeled the recent actions by the TPLF faction as a “potential coup attempt”, further heightening concerns about the legitimacy and authority of the interim government.
Speaking in a televised interview, Reda urged the international community, which played a crucial role in mediating the Pretoria Peace Agreement, to closely monitor the evolving situation in Tigray.
“The parties to the Pretoria Agreement should really take into account the deteriorating situation in Tigray and the far-reaching ramifications of the unraveling of the Pretoria agreements,” Reda warned.
The TPLF’s Response
Despite accusations of attempting a coup, the TPLF leadership insists that the current crisis has nothing to do with the Pretoria Agreement.
Amanuel Assefa, the deputy chairman of the TPLF, told the Associated Press that the events unfolding in Tigray are primarily law enforcement matters and not political violations of the peace accord.
“The TPLF and the Tigray forces are the rightful owners of the Pretoria Agreement,” Assefa stated. “Therefore, there is no reason to engage in any actions that would violate it.”
His comments suggest that the TPLF faction sees the recent takeovers as internal adjustments rather than an outright rebellion against the interim government. However, the violent confrontations and territorial takeovers tell a different story, leading many to question whether Tigray’s fragile peace is beginning to crumble.
Potential Federal Government Intervention
With the interim government appealing for assistance from Ethiopia’s federal authorities, the response from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration will be crucial in determining the next steps.
The Ethiopian government has largely taken a cautious approach since the peace agreement was signed, allowing the TPLF-led interim government to manage its own affairs. However, the growing instability could force Addis Ababa to take a more active role in restoring order.
Federal intervention could take various forms, including diplomatic mediation or military deployment. However, the latter option carries significant risks, as any use of force could reignite broader tensions in a region still recovering from war.
International Concerns and the Role of the African Union
The international community has remained invested in Ethiopia’s post-war stability, with the African Union (AU) playing a key role in brokering the Pretoria Peace Agreement.
With the recent developments, pressure may mount on the AU, along with other stakeholders such as the United Nations and Western governments, to take decisive action in preventing further escalation.
Any resurgence of conflict in Tigray could also have wider implications for regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Neighboring countries, including Sudan and Eritrea, have previously been drawn into Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, and there are concerns that renewed fighting could have spillover effects.
Path Forward: What Lies Ahead for Tigray?
As tensions continue to rise, the immediate priority will be finding a diplomatic resolution to the internal divisions within the TPLF. Whether through federal intervention, international mediation, or direct negotiations between the rival factions, the coming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of Tigray’s political landscape.
For the people of Tigray, who have endured years of war and humanitarian suffering, the fear of renewed conflict is a grim reminder of the fragile nature of peace. The leadership of both the interim government and the TPLF must find a way to resolve their differences without resorting to further violence.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement was intended to bring an end to years of bloodshed, but its success depends on all parties upholding their commitments. As Ethiopia navigates this latest crisis, the hope remains that dialogue and diplomacy will prevail over conflict and division.
