Cocoa farmers across Ivory Coast are voicing growing concerns about deteriorating weather conditions that could seriously impact the country’s main cocoa harvest scheduled from October to March. Reports of unusually low rainfall, colder-than-normal temperatures, and overcast skies are triggering fears of reduced yields, threatening both the global cocoa supply and the livelihoods of thousands of farmers in the world’s top cocoa-producing nation.
The West African country, which typically relies on heavy and consistent rainfall during its April to mid-November rainy season, has witnessed a significant drop in precipitation across major cocoa-growing regions in recent weeks. Farmers warn that if the trend continues, it could damage cocoa flowers and young pods, disrupt the normal growing cycle, and expose plantations to disease.
Farmers Ring Alarm Bells Over Weather Shifts
“Last week we barely saw any sunshine, and the rain just didn’t come,” said Kouadio Brou, a cocoa farmer in the centre-western region of Daloa, one of Ivory Coast’s most productive cocoa zones. “The trees are showing signs of stress. Some flowers have already started to dry up and fall.”
According to data reviewed by local agricultural observers, Daloa received just 0.9 millimeters of rain last week, which is 18.5 millimeters below the seasonal average for this time of year. That deficit, combined with persistent overcast conditions and lower-than-normal temperatures, has intensified concern among farmers who depend heavily on stable weather patterns to ensure a successful harvest.
“This cold spell is unusual for this time of year. Normally by late July, we expect both sun and rain, but it feels like something is not right,” said Yao Koffi, another grower in the Divo region.
Low Rainfall Threatens Flowering and Pod Formation
The lack of rainfall is particularly alarming because cocoa trees require a delicate balance of moisture and warmth to thrive during their flowering and pod development stages. Without adequate water, flowers may dry out prematurely and fall, reducing the number of pods that ultimately mature into cocoa beans.
Farmers from across the southern regions of Agboville and Divo, as well as the eastern hub of Abengourou, have echoed similar worries, stating that rainfall has been well below average across their plantations. Some areas have also reported signs of leaf yellowing, dry stems, and even minor outbreaks of fungal disease—conditions typically worsened by cooler temperatures and insufficient sunlight.
“Without rain and sunlight, the cocoa trees become vulnerable. We need the sun to prevent fungal diseases, and rain to help the flowers and pods grow strong,” explained a cooperative leader in Agboville.
Climate Variability Fuels Sector Uncertainty
Ivory Coast, which supplies nearly 40% of the world’s cocoa, has long been considered the backbone of the global chocolate industry. However, in recent years, the country has increasingly faced the effects of climate variability—with inconsistent rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and changing wind conditions affecting farming calendars.
The current weather anomalies are just the latest in a series of challenges that have plagued Ivorian cocoa farmers. From soil degradation to aging tree stock and limited access to fertilizers, the sector has been grappling with declining productivity even as global demand for cocoa continues to grow.
Analysts warn that any significant drop in Ivory Coast’s output could create ripple effects across global markets, potentially leading to price hikes and increased volatility. Already, global cocoa prices have surged in 2025 due to declining inventories and uncertain projections from top producers.
“Climate change is becoming the greatest threat to cocoa production,” said Dr. Marie Tano, an agricultural economist based in Abidjan. “Ivory Coast needs urgent investment in climate-smart agriculture if it wants to maintain its position as the world’s leading cocoa exporter.”
Livelihoods at Risk
The livelihoods of more than one million Ivorian cocoa farmers could be at stake if weather conditions continue to deteriorate. For many families in rural communities, cocoa is the main—if not only—source of income. A weak harvest not only limits household revenue but also undermines food security, access to healthcare, and school fees for children.
“Last year was already difficult because of inconsistent rains. If this year’s harvest also fails, many of us won’t survive financially,” said a worried farmer from Abengourou, who asked not to be named. “We’re praying every day for rain.”
Farmers are now hoping that the final stretch of the rainy season—expected to last until mid-November—will bring enough moisture and sunshine to salvage what’s left of this year’s main crop. However, with forecasts predicting continued dry spells and unseasonably cool conditions in several key regions, optimism remains guarded.
Call for Government and Industry Support
In light of the unfolding challenges, farmers and agricultural leaders are calling on the Ivorian government and international cocoa buyers to step up support for rural communities. Suggested measures include providing access to irrigation systems, early-warning weather information, and disease-resistant cocoa seedlings.
“There is an urgent need to modernize cocoa farming practices,” said a spokesperson from the Cocoa and Coffee Council (CCC), the body responsible for regulating the sector in Ivory Coast. “We must equip farmers with the tools and training to adapt to changing environmental conditions.”
There are also calls for private cocoa companies—many of which benefit from Ivory Coast’s vast cocoa reserves—to invest more meaningfully in sustainability programs that directly impact smallholder farmers.
The Road Ahead
As Ivory Coast braces for the October-to-March main harvest season, the country stands at a critical juncture. While cocoa has long been its economic lifeline, sustaining that role will depend on how quickly it can adapt to the realities of a changing climate.
For now, farmers across the cocoa belt are watching the skies, hoping that the rains will return and the sun will break through. As one elderly farmer in Daloa put it, “We’ve always depended on nature. But now, it feels like nature is no longer on our side.”
