Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, marking a significant rebound from the 2.27% recorded during the same period in 2024. The growth announcement, made by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, follows a comprehensive rebasing of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which now uses 2019 as the new base year.
The rebased figures place Nigeria’s total economic output at ₦372.8 trillion, or approximately $243.7 billion, underscoring the scale and complexity of Africa’s largest economy. The new data framework is expected to provide a clearer and more current reflection of Nigeria’s economic realities and sectoral contributions.
According to the NBS, the Services sector led the Q1 2025 growth with an impressive expansion of 4.33%, accounting for more than 57% of total GDP. This was followed by the Industry sector, which grew by 3.42%, supported by increased activity in manufacturing, construction, and energy. Meanwhile, the Agriculture sector posted a marginal growth of 0.07%, a modest recovery from the negative figures recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Despite the positive headline growth, the latest figures fell short of the 4.9% Q1 forecast by some economists and market analysts. Nevertheless, government officials and economic experts are optimistic, arguing that the GDP rebasing exercise has improved the reliability of national statistics and provided a firmer foundation for future policy planning.
“The rebasing exercise was long overdue and brings our statistical system closer to global best practices,” said Dr. Yemi Kale, former Statistician-General of the NBS and an advocate for data-driven policymaking. “By shifting the base year to 2019, the new series captures more recent economic activities, including technology and services that have become more prominent in recent years.”
Rebasing GDP involves updating the base year used to calculate economic data to reflect more current prices, consumption patterns, and structural changes within the economy. Nigeria previously rebased its GDP in 2014, when the base year was updated from 1990 to 2010, resulting in a massive jump in the country’s economic size and global ranking.
This latest update, coming more than a decade later, once again reveals changes in the economy’s composition. The Services sector—now bolstered by growth in telecommunications, finance, entertainment, and information technology—continues to outpace traditional sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.
According to the NBS report, telecommunications and information services remained major growth drivers within Services, contributing significantly to national output. Financial services also recorded a strong performance, reflecting increased digitisation and expanding access to banking.
On the other hand, agriculture, which has long been a cornerstone of Nigeria’s rural economy and employment, continues to face structural challenges, including climate-related disruptions, insecurity in farming regions, and outdated infrastructure. The sector’s 0.07% growth, while positive, signals the need for renewed policy attention and investment.
The Industry sector’s 3.42% expansion was driven largely by gains in construction, oil refining, and electricity production. While oil output remains a critical component of industrial performance, recent efforts to diversify within the sector—such as increased refining capacity and energy projects—have helped cushion the impact of global price fluctuations.
Speaking at a press briefing in Abuja, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, welcomed the NBS report, saying the data validates the Tinubu administration’s economic reform agenda.
“This growth, although modest, reflects the underlying resilience of our economy and the effectiveness of our ongoing policy interventions,” Edun said. “We are committed to building on this momentum by addressing inflation, improving infrastructure, and supporting private sector-led growth.”
He added that the rebased GDP figures would enhance Nigeria’s credibility with international investors, development partners, and financial institutions, who rely heavily on accurate data when making funding and investment decisions.
However, not all reactions were celebratory. Critics caution that real growth on the ground remains elusive for many Nigerians, particularly given the current inflation rate, which remains above 30%, and the continued depreciation of the naira. High unemployment, rising food prices, and growing inequality have also muted the impact of headline growth figures for many households.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, called for a cautious interpretation of the numbers.
“GDP growth is important, but it must translate into better living standards. Without tackling inflation, unemployment, and insecurity, the benefits of growth will not be widely felt,” Yusuf said.
The World Bank and other international observers have long urged Nigeria to diversify its economy, improve its business environment, and enhance governance. The rebased figures, while more reflective of current realities, do not in themselves resolve underlying structural issues.
Looking ahead, economists suggest that sustaining and accelerating growth will require a multi-pronged approach. Priorities include reforms in agriculture, expansion of the digital economy, improved infrastructure, and stronger fiscal management. Boosting productivity in manufacturing and leveraging Nigeria’s young, growing population are also seen as key drivers of future growth.
The NBS report concludes that while the 3.13% Q1 growth rate indicates steady recovery and a more diversified economy, the momentum must be sustained with deliberate policy actions.
As Nigeria enters the second half of 2025, all eyes will be on the government’s ability to consolidate gains, attract investment, and ensure that economic expansion is inclusive and impactful across all segments of society. The updated GDP figures provide a stronger statistical foundation—but it is the policy execution that will determine whether this growth becomes meaningful progress for the Nigerian people.
