In a significant shift in the region’s diplomatic and security landscape, the foreign ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will visit Moscow this week to deepen their strategic ties with Russia.
Scheduled for April 3-4, this marks the first official AES-Russia consultations since the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) in 2024. The visit underscores a growing pivot away from their former colonial power, France, and the regional organization ECOWAS. These West African nations, all governed by military juntas following a series of coups between 2020 and 2023, are seeking political and military support from Moscow.
A Shift in Alliances
This realignment comes as the Sahel region grapples with ongoing jihadist insurgencies that have devastated local populations, claiming thousands of lives. Since their respective coups, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have distanced themselves from Western powers, arguing that previous security arrangements had failed to curb the extremist threat.
The AES, chaired by Mali, has prioritized self-reliance and regional cooperation. As part of the bloc’s Year 1 Roadmap, the foreign ministers will engage with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss enhanced collaboration in defense, security, and economic development. According to AES officials, the visit is seen as a “crucial step” toward advancing shared goals of stability and sovereignty.
Russia’s Expanding Influence
Russia has already played a role in supporting AES member states through military assistance, including its controversial Wagner Group, which has been active in Mali since 2021. Reports suggest that AES nations have signed defense agreements with Moscow, allowing for an increased Russian military presence in the region. The discussions in Moscow are expected to reinforce these ties, with potential agreements on intelligence sharing, arms supplies, and counterterrorism strategies.
Beyond defense, Russia and the AES are also strengthening cooperation in economic sectors, particularly energy and mining. With vast natural resources, including gold and uranium, the Sahel nations see Moscow as an alternative partner to Western companies, which they accuse of exploiting their resources without adequate returns to local economies.
The Military and Security Strategy
One of the central topics of the Moscow visit will be the formation of a joint AES military force. Earlier this year, the three countries announced plans to establish a 5,000-strong military unit dedicated to countering regional terrorism and ensuring border security. The force aims to replace the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of French and U.S. troops, which were previously stationed in the region under counterterrorism mandates.
With Russian backing, the AES is expected to modernize its military capabilities, including acquiring new weaponry and training for its forces. Given the security challenges in the Sahel, leaders believe closer military cooperation with Moscow will enhance their ability to combat jihadist groups, which continue to launch attacks despite prior Western interventions.
Diplomatic Fallout with ECOWAS and the West
The growing AES-Russia alliance has sparked concerns among Western governments, particularly France and the United States. The withdrawal of AES nations from ECOWAS earlier this year was seen as a decisive break from regional integration efforts. ECOWAS had imposed economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on the juntas following their coups, but these measures only fueled resentment and accelerated the bloc’s shift toward alternative partnerships.
France, which once had a strong military presence in Mali and Niger, has seen its influence rapidly decline as AES nations expelled French troops and severed defense agreements. Meanwhile, the U.S. has expressed concerns over the Wagner Group’s activities, citing allegations of human rights abuses in Mali and potential Russian exploitation of Sahelian resources.
Despite these criticisms, the AES remains firm in its decision to diversify partnerships. The Moscow visit represents a key moment in this realignment, with the potential to reshape regional power dynamics in the years to come.
Economic and Infrastructure Developments
While military cooperation dominates discussions, economic partnerships are also on the agenda. Russia has expressed interest in investing in AES infrastructure projects, including roads, railways, and energy facilities. With limited domestic resources to fund these projects, AES leaders see Russian involvement as an opportunity to boost economic development while reducing reliance on Western financial institutions.
Russia’s expertise in nuclear energy has also attracted interest from Niger, which holds some of the world’s largest uranium reserves. Given its recent fallout with Western energy firms, Niger may explore new agreements with Russian companies for uranium extraction and nuclear power development.
Regional and Global Implications
The deepening AES-Russia ties could have broader implications for Africa’s geopolitical landscape. If successful, the partnership may encourage other nations to explore alternatives to Western-led security frameworks. The shift also aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of increasing its influence in Africa, where it has sought alliances through military cooperation and diplomatic engagements.
However, the move is not without risks. Critics argue that Russia’s support, particularly through Wagner, may lead to long-term dependency on foreign mercenaries rather than fostering sustainable national security forces. Additionally, Western nations could impose economic or diplomatic consequences on AES members in response to their deepening ties with Moscow.
The Road Ahead
As Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger move forward with their strategic pivot, the outcome of this Moscow visit will be closely watched. Key questions remain: Will the AES secure tangible military and economic commitments from Russia? How will ECOWAS and Western nations respond? And will closer ties with Moscow bring the promised security improvements, or will new challenges arise from this realignment?
For now, the three Sahel states appear committed to forging a new path—one that prioritizes self-determination and regional unity, even if it means defying traditional Western allies. The coming months will reveal whether this shift results in lasting stability or further geopolitical tensions in an already volatile region.
