The 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) is set to take place in Turkey, following a dramatic breakthrough that ended months of diplomatic deadlock within the UN’s Western Europe and Others Group (WEOG). The surprise agreement, reached during high-level negotiations at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, will see Australia withdraw its bid to host the summit and accept a rare split-presidency arrangement with Turkey — a structure virtually unseen in the history of UN climate diplomacy.
Under the compromise, Turkey will host COP31 in the Mediterranean city of Antalya, while Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, will serve as COP president. Turkey, in turn, will appoint a “venue president” responsible for local logistics, security, and operational planning. This dual-leadership model deviates sharply from the long-standing convention that the COP president is always drawn from the host nation.
A Resolution to a Months-Long Impasse
Responsibility for hosting COP31 fell to WEOG, which includes Australia, Turkey, New Zealand, Israel, and Western European states. However, the group had been locked in disagreement for months as Australia and Turkey both maintained strong bids and neither side appeared willing to concede.
The stalemate threatened to derail planning for the 2026 summit, with fears mounting that the conference could default back to Bonn, Germany, where the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat is headquartered. Such an outcome, negotiators warned, would leave the world without an elected COP president or a defined agenda for an entire year — a scenario Chris Bowen called “deeply irresponsible” amid escalating climate impacts worldwide.
The eventual compromise came after intense negotiations, with delegations from several Pacific Island states playing a pivotal role in advocating for a deal that preserved their interests.
Shared Presidency Raises Questions
The split-presidency arrangement will see Chris Bowen wield all formal presidential powers, including appointing co-facilitators, guiding negotiations, and drafting the COP cover decision — arguably the most politically sensitive element of every climate summit.
“As COP president, I will have all the authority required to guide negotiations effectively,” Bowen told journalists in Belém. He added that Turkey’s role will be focused on delivering “a world-class venue,” managing operations, and coordinating with the UNFCCC Secretariat.
Observers say the model is unprecedented and could reshape future COP negotiations if successful. However, several diplomats privately expressed concerns about possible coordination challenges, differing priorities, and the risk of blurred responsibilities.
Despite these reservations, Bowen insisted that the arrangement would function smoothly. “This is a partnership built on trust and necessity,” he said, adding that both nations shared a commitment to delivering a productive and ambitious COP31.
A Gesture to the Pacific
In a move designed to address concerns from climate-vulnerable Pacific Island nations, the agreement includes a symbolic concession: a pre-COP meeting will be held on a Pacific island state, giving the region a prominent role in shaping next year’s global climate agenda.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the deal as “an outstanding result,” emphasizing that Pacific priorities — including loss and damage finance, adaptation funding, and climate resilience — would remain “front and centre” under Australia’s COP presidency.
He revealed that discussions with Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape and Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka helped shape the final arrangement.
Pacific Leaders Express Disappointment
Despite Australia’s efforts to elevate Pacific voices, not all regional leaders were pleased with the outcome.
Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko told AFP:
“We are all not happy. And disappointed it’s ended up like this.”
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele had earlier warned that his country would be “deeply disappointed” if Australia failed to secure the hosting rights it had aggressively pursued.
For months, Australia had lobbied to bring COP31 to Adelaide, proposing a joint summit with Pacific nations to highlight their frontline experiences with rising sea levels and climate-induced displacement. Many Pacific leaders had publicly supported the bid, seeing it as an opportunity to advance their climate agenda on a global stage.
Turkey Moves Forward with Planning
Turkey has long expressed interest in hosting a COP, and officials noted that the country stepped aside in 2021 to allow the United Kingdom to host COP26 in Glasgow. Given that history, Ankara argued it had a strong claim during this year’s negotiations.
With the compromise now in place, Turkish authorities are expected to move swiftly into planning mode once the UNFCCC formally ratifies the decision — a vote diplomats expect will pass without significant opposition, given how difficult the compromise was to achieve.
Global Reactions and Implications
Climate analysts say the Turkey–Australia arrangement marks a significant departure from precedent and could influence future COP bidding processes. Some argue the deal may open doors for more flexible hosting structures, especially when geopolitical tensions or regional splits arise. Others caution that shared presidencies may create governance inefficiencies that complicate negotiations in already complex climate talks.
Still, many agree that avoiding a default return to Bonn was essential. “Not having a COP president for a year would have been catastrophic,” one senior diplomat said. “This deal may be unusual, but it ensures the climate process stays on track.”
A New Chapter in Climate Diplomacy
As COP30 continues in Brazil, attention is shifting toward the unprecedented dual-led COP31. Whether the partnership becomes a model for future summits or remains a one-off solution depends largely on how smoothly planning proceeds and whether the arrangement enhances — rather than complicates — global climate negotiations.
For now, the breakthrough ends a political stalemate and provides clarity to more than 190 nations preparing for next year’s critical climate summit. With Turkey hosting and Australia presiding, COP31 is set to become one of the most closely watched and diplomatically significant climate conferences in recent years.
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